SARCHI: Mechanistic modelling of health and epidemiology

The currently used mathematical models for medical treatment at the individual or population level are largely phenomenological and have limited quantitative predictive power. It is usually not possible to predict the effect of an intervention in a specific process or to predict the effect of a pharmaceutical drug since the step or enzyme on which the intervention/drug works is not explicit in the model.

Taking HIV pathogenesis as an example, the immune system response, vaccine exposure, and drug regimen all affect viral replication and onward transmission, which may be a single parameter in a model. Or in higher-level scenarios of epidemiological intervention, condom distribution, behavioural messaging, and vaccines may all be affecting a single transmissibility parameter.

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Funding details:

South African Research Chair in: "Mechanistic modelling of health and epidemiology" hosted by Stellenbosch University, funded by the DST and administered by NRF.

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